Meridian

Forecasting the exponential world.

Probability forecasts for institutional decisions this quarter.
Calibrated through 2050. 5.61-point average miss on the hold-out backtest.

What it forecasts

Economic, geopolitical, and demographic shifts across 99 forecast surfaces. Each forecast returns a probability, a horizon, and a record that can be checked after outcomes resolve.

Who uses it

Institutes and think tanks, economic development teams, investment funds, and corporate strategy teams. Plus agents that need probabilities at the moment a decision is being shaped.

How it is scored

Resolved calls are scored against outcomes. Meridian publishes hold-out accuracy, rolling Brier windows, and the assumptions behind the methodology so the forecast record can be inspected.

Where it enters decisions

Thesis review, regional planning, sector allocation, board materials, and agent workflows. Meridian is not a briefing to admire. It is a probability layer for choices that need to be made before the future is obvious.

Auditability

A forecast should leave a record.

Meridian treats forecasting as a scored discipline. Calls are generated on the record, misses count against the score, and live production windows are compared against the historical backtest.

The dashboard, API, and audience briefs live inside Meridian.